Russia is beginning its inevitable collapse, as it has always done: in 1830, 1905, 1917, and 1989. But that also makes it more dangerous; a cornered rat is most vicious, and if the collapse is drawn out, Moscow could lash out and drag us down with it.

Ukraine has regained the initiative over the battlefield and, in some areas, it has gained a small amount of ground. According to Meduza, a Russian-language investigative news website, Russian fatalities in 2025 reached 352,000; it’s likely that by May this year, that figure could reach 400,000.

A million have been wounded or incapacitated by the war—that’s around 1 in 33 male Russians. Even in a country with a large population, more than a million casualties without gaining ground is unsustainable.

The land bridge to Crimea that Russia seized in 2022, running from the peninsula to the occupied city of Mariupol, is now under fire control by Ukraine’s long-range drones. The Kerch Bridge remains unreliable, control over the Kremlin’s first conquest from 2014 is unviable.

Morale amongst the Russians is abyssal; their nationalist bloggers are screeching. Evgeny Golman says, ‘the front is shocked, everything is screwed;’ Yegor Guzenko criticised Putin’s conduct of the war and ended up in a ‘meat’ assault unit with a broken leg.

Victory Day on May 9 is supposed to represent Russia’s ‘glory’ to the world, but as we saw this year, it has nothing to show. No armour, no power, just North Korean troops on Red Square. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy even issued a decree permitting the parade.

Russia is collapsing and there are increasingly credible reports that President Vladimir Putin’s position is vulnerable. There will be no sudden soul-searching, no mass realisation about the immorality of the invasion; rats will flee, or fight each other to survive as the war economy crumbles.

Russia will test us

But that does not mean Russia is not dangerous. Cornered rats fight voraciously to survive, and there is no indication that Putin has the self-awareness to realise his position.

His demands remain unchanged: full control of the Donbas region with all sanctions lifted and no NATO membership for Ukraine. Listen to the Kremlin and its propagandists, and you’ll realise there is no possibility of negotiation or compromise. Russia’s leadership remains convinced that it can divide the West and maintain its maximalist demands.

And with good reason. US president Donald Trump’s actions in Greenland and Iran have caused NATO to fracture; there is no trust between Washington and its erstwhile allies in Europe. Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t value the North Atlantic alliance.

With casualties mounting in Ukraine, a looming economic catastrophe at home, and a huge loss of influence abroad, Russia may act to test NATO to regain the strategic initiative. This test would likely occur in Narva.

Narva is a small, bleak city in eastern Estonia, plagued by unemployment and post-industrial decline. It is also mostly inhabited by ethnic Russians, and pro-Russian nationalists are already demanding that Moscow intervenes to “return the city to the motherland.”

The exact same messaging played out in 2014 when Russia moved to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine in the Donbas. The same flags, rallying cries, and historical distortions.

If Estonia is attacked, it would trigger NATO’s Article 5. This does not launch nukes at Russia; a response could take weeks, even months, to occur. The Kremlin will bet, with some justification, that Trump will not support Europe, that some NATO countries will prevaricate about participating in a response, and others will be too internally divided to mount an effective response.

And thus, the NATO alliance collapses.

We’re unprepared for war

It is a calculated risk—high stakes, but there is a logic to it. Trump’s fury over Europe’s refusal to participate in the war against Iran makes it unlikely that American support would be forthcoming should Russia test NATO.

Some NATO members would likely drag their feet over responding to a Russian test. The Czech Republic and Slovakia both have governments that would avoid conflict, as could some smaller members like Montenegro and North Macedonia.

The countries with leadership most willing to stand up to Russian aggression—particularly the UK, Germany, and France—may not be able to offer a response either. Their militaries are chronically underfunded and undertrained, and joint exercises with Ukrainian troops utilising drones have repeatedly made it clear that European soldiers are not ready for drone warfare.

Then there’s the disenchantment present in the working classes of Western nations, the traditional recruiting pool of our militaries. Military service is no longer a viable career, it’s poorly paid with no social prestige. Studies have also repeatedly shown that a majority in Western European countries would not be willing to fight for their country if invaded.

Can we blame them? Exponentially rising housing costs, cultural disconnect, a sense of no longer belonging in their own countries, of being ignored by the political elite; these are all valid concerns, and all are exploited by Russian disinformation now—and would be again, should a war begin.

Russia is collapsing, and will collapse, but that collapse must be as harsh, total, and rapid as possible to ensure the Kremling does have time to pivot to a challenge against NATO. Otherwise, we could be dragged into war we’re woefully unprepared for.